Posted 1:51 AM by Paul
Message to My Friend Chris

I send this over to my friend Chris today. He is a man in good postion to view the present situation having travelled in the USA and lived in France for years. Also his father was a POW in Italy and Germany during WWII. Apparently his dad was not too keen on the Italians. Also Chris is not a raving left wing nut-case like me who is moving further left as each day passes. Chris has stayed pretty much in the same place politically, culturally and ethically since the day I first met him outside a bar in Pamplona 24 years ago.


Dear Chris

The POW issue brings back memories of Vietnam for a a lot of yanks. How will they ever get them back? Also Cheney got out of the problems of status of the Guantanamo Bay guys by claiming they were not POWs but terrorists. What happens if Saddam does the same? The yanks blew up a bus of fleeing refugees yesterday so lots of Arabs will say "Well someone blowing up kids from an Apache helicopter is a terrorist. Hang 'em from a lampost."

The radio has just announced that foreign companies can now bid for work in rebuilding Iraq. The US Government is "waiving legislation" that means the USAID (government agency) can only give cash to US companies to do work. The big argument will also be about who pays. Bush wants the UN to stump up cash and then give it principally to US companies. Kofi Annan has already said that the duty of reconstruction is on the beligerents in the case of a war not sanctioned by the UN. BA has also just announced that it is bringing forward job cuts due to falling demand for flights. I have reacted to the war by posponing buying flights to New York with the kids and Heather. The economic impact of this will be far reaching.

I think they will find some nasty stuff in Iraq at some stage because if it doesn't exists they will plant it. Instinctively I feel that Robin Cook has got it right. Saddam has some stuff around but not in mass quantities and does not have reliable delivery systems. If he had a missile that could hit Tel Aviv I think he would have used it by now. Few people beleive that Saddam is even close to a nuclear bomb. Also it is very hard to take serious the argument that mustard gas (used in 1917) is a Weapon of Mass Destruction but cluster bombs and cruise missiles are not. But I could be wrong. He could have it all hidden Blofeldt style in a secret complex in a mountain staffed by flesh eating robots

If they only find a bit of stuff this will hit Blair more than Bush. US political opinion has moved on. UK political opinion has a longer memory and Blair has very much presetned this as his personal moral crusade. I suppose Blair (who is now called Tony Bush in some of the Canadian media) reckons that all this will be forgotten. Nobody remembers why we started fighting in WW1. I think he is wrong on that score

As for Chirac I don't think anyone suspects him of a moral stance just a more reasoned position. One French commentator summed up the view from the French when it said "..that the Presdient is acting from a point of principle cannot be entirely ruled out."

My take on this is that the issue is not Iraq at all. It is the larger geopolitical picture of how the rest of the world interacts with the one superpower. The present White House is ruled by a clique of people from a group called Project for a New American Century. They have a simple thesis. Cold War is over and we should use this opportunity to project US power as we see fit. It's pretty much a New Rome view of the world.

Blair takes the classic UK view which is that he can be the bridge between Europe and the USA and that the EU needs to be a friend and trusted allie of the USA. The Chirac/Scroeder view (which is in-line with the founding fathers of the EU) view is that Europe needs to be a strong counterpoint to the USA. This is the bottom line of the Euro. Create a single market bigger than the USA and create a currency that can withstand fluctuations in the dollar. It is a big project but it looks like the Euro is starting to rise and to be trusted by the markets despite the weakness of the German economy.

I think the European view is a mixture of short term expediency but also fundamantal differences in outlook. The UK view is based on the fanstasy that we can still be a kind of mini superpower and can really change the course of EU policy which was set in the late 50s and early 60s. We have still not got over losing the Empire. I think we will get crushed in the middle of the two blocs. A lot of French will now say "Look De Gaulle was right. The British will always choose the US over Europe in any disagreement." Don't be surpised if Russia is in the EU by 2030.

If Blair tries to take the UK into the Euro - Chirac will nail his balls to the negotiating table with a series of punitive conditions laid out in the Maastricht Treaty. Late comers to the party pay extra. It is there in balck and white Think of it as a kind of £5 before 10.00 p.m. £10.00 after club night. Chirac may just bring out the bouncers and say "Sorry Tony no trainers. Come back on student night"

Cheers

Paul