Posted 4:20 AM by Paul
So - another day and another volte face by the Government. We are now told that the conflict "could take longer than expected" and to prepare ourselves for difficult times ahead" The latter is code for our soldiers will die but it will be worth it if they save my political career. Various government spokemen and women are lying through their teeth claiming that they had never said it would be over quickly. This is despite constant claims by Blair and others that our troops would be met by cheering crowds happy to have escaped Saddam's jackboot. It brought to mind the bit in 1984 when Winston Smith hears the announcement that the chocolate ration had been raised to 25 grammes . Was he the only person who remembered that until last week the ration had been 30 grammes? Luckily I don't feel like that. You can feel that people simply discount much of what the Government is saying. They are reading between the lines like Soviet citizens used to do when they read Pravda. The Wages of Spin, and all that.

I got an e-mail last night from a friend who I meet up with every year in Pamplona. His name is Tom and he fought in the special forces in Vietnam. He is in his early 50s and knows enough about war to last 5 lifetimes. He's clearly worried that the tactics and strategy are all wrong. He thinks that it was now becoming a nationalistic conflict with Iraqis flooding across the border to help fight for their country. He restricted his comments to the practicals and not the poltics. He must be looking at the faces of some of the US boys and remembering some of his old friends who never came back. So in my typical know-all fashion I replied to Tom. I felt it was important to let him know what it felt like from this side of the pond. I hope I wasn't too pompous. This is what I wrote.


" The other thing that strikes me is the way that US/UK forces are strung out in what is effectively a long column with potentially hostile territory on either side. Again I am not a military tactician but I had always thought this was always very risky. High chances of concentrations of troops getting cut off. I can't see the Iraqis performing some kind of Stalingrad type encirclement breakthrough. however, I could see companies destroyed or captured in this way.

It is a big mistake to let a non-solider like Rummy plan a campaign and get carried away with all the new toys the marketing guys from the arms manufacturers have sold him. He clearly has an idea they can do the war on the cheap with fewer boots on the ground leaving them free for other operations in 2004/5. A kind of War-Lite. At least 10 countires have a vested interst in stringing out the conflict as long as possible, Russia and Iran included. Even 100 shoulder held missile launchers could cause problems.

The UK Minister of Defence is qualified for his job by being a former polytechnic lecturer.

Colin Powell's opposite number was the former head of the National Union of Students and a political research assistant. He has never had what you or I would call a proper job. Heaven help us.

My other take on this is that the US have not learnt the appalling lessons of Sept 11th....that no-tech zealots can inflict terrible damage on a hi-tech nation. The US can bomb Iraqi comms systems into oblivion but the guerilla war continues. Some of the Shiah who are fighting despite expectations they would rise up and join the US (Come on! these were same people who took the US Embassy hostages) actually welcome death. They all enjoy fighting. They do it for fun.

Politically I think that Bush has enormous slack. US citizens support their military in times of strife. It only becomes a problem if it screws the economy and runs on to 2004 (unlikely). Blair is totally exposed and could be thrown out. In the UK support is lukewarm because so many people across the poltical/social class spectrum voiced their opposition before war broke out. Oppostion comes from right and left. Even in military towns old soldiers are voicing their concerns. Not about Iraqi civilian casualties but about whether we should be "risking our boys". There was no such feeling about the Falklands or the first Gulf War. Support ran at around 90%. Now it is 54%.

It is also clear that a whole bunch of Labnour MPs voted with the Government for war and against the rebels (who now contain some leading moderate figures with Government experience) because they thought the war would be over in 10 days. Mass surrender, Sadams shot by his own people etc..

This is a mess and I cannot see a way out."