Posted 7:48 AM by Paul
The Iraq War Comes Home

If anyone looks back on this blog in a hundred years time they will think that there was only one topic of debate at the start of the 21st Century in the UK.

That's the way it is. Not even Vietnam dominated the news media in the way that events in Iraq now completely saturate TV, radio and the print media. But the British weren't involved directly in Vietnam. It was something over there. Something that the Americans were doing. Young British men and women did not die in the Mekong Delta thanks to a political elite - Conservative as well as Labour - that could spot a very bad idea when they saw one. 35 years later we were not so blessed. Our involvement in Iraq and non-involvement in Vietnam was certainly nothing to do with levels of political opposition.

Opposition to the invasion of Iraq is massive and widespread across age and social class. Opposition to Vietnam was smaller and limited largely to the young white middle class. 50,00 marched on Grosvenor Square in 1968. Two million marched in London in 2003. In 1969 I went on an anti-Vietnam War demonstration in Sheffield with my friend John Sutton, a member of the Young Communist League [ I never joined ] I was 13 and my voice had still not broken. I must have sounded comical chanting "Victory to the NLF - Ho-Ho-Ho-Chi-Minh" in a castratto whine. There was no more than 2,000 people there. 35 years later and 40,000 people were marching in my home town against a war that they knew was about to happen, despite Blair's protestations.

Iraq is also brought home to us on a daily basis by the horror of kidnap and beheading. As I write, Kenneth Bigley, a 62 year old Liverpudlian civil engineer, is in a cellar somewhere in Baghdad wondering when he will be tied down and have his head sawn from his shoulders. Two young Americans have already suffered the same fate. His family make appeals on TV and have even managed to get a leaflet distributed in Western Baghdad in Arabic pleading for his release so that he can come home to his 87 year old mother. It is an unimaginable horror for the 21st century but all of this was not only predictable but predicted by a wide range of people from across the political spectrum. Even normally phelgmatic Iraq specialists in the Foreign Office warned of the ensueing chaos a year before the invasion. I cannot remember a time when the British political class has been so deaf to reason.

A phone-in on the BBC has just finished. A young Muslim man described his sense of total impotence. He explained that Muslims had argued, marched and lobbied but no one listened. He denounced the murderers but remembered that Muslims had warned that if you created a vacuum in Iraq something even worse would fill it. They knew what was going to happen. This was followed by the Editor of Al-Jazeera explaining that his station had a moral duty to try and help secure Ken Bigley's releases because the death of any human being in such conditions was a tragedy. A similar level of common humanity is totally lacking in the way western media players talk about innocent Iraqi casualties of allied bombing. They are just collateral damage.

So, Iraq has reverted to the politics of the 9th Century thanks to the smart bombs and dumb politicians of the USA and the UK. The BBC has just announced that two Egyptian engineers working from a US mobile telephone company have just been kidnapped. They were seized in their office in broad day light. Hostage taking has become a daily occurence. It's a growth industry.

No one can seriously expect Bush or Blair to concede to the kidnappers demands. The kidnappers don't expect them to. But neither can Bush and Blair cannot offer security to foreigners in Iraq because all available forces are engaged in bombing Falluja or securing oil installations. The whole affair has brought home how completely impotent Blair has become. He is controlled by events in Iraq as the Iraqi insurgents manipulate the news agenda. His influence in Washinton is non existent because he has served his purpose and is now surplus to requirements. After Bush is re-elected Blair will be sidelined entirely as Bush tries to mend bridges with France and Germany. Blair was moved from war leader to care worn crisis manager. After Bush wins re-election in November he will be yesterday's man.

Ken Bigley's kidnappers will of course have access to CNN, Fox and BBC News 24 to check how the story is playing out across the world. They can choose their moment to strike the fatal blow based on when it makes the most impact. Terrorism as armed propaganda. I wouldn't be surprised if something barbaric happens in Baghdad to coincide with Labour Party conference, possibly just as Blair rises to speak next Tuesday.

Bush and Blair now have two options - neither of which they can countenance. Pull out or massively increase the number and level of engagement of their forces.